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Trump Talks-Will Putin and Prince Listen?

April 03, 2020

V-Patrika Staff, Toronto

To envisage that there would be no winner in this global price war for Oil would be foolhardy. The two major warriors of this war MBS and Putin, are making well rehearsed moves. They are playing a game at Global level which is very well calibrated and planned in much detail. Both countries, Russia and Saudi Arabia, have the cushion to sustain lower cost of Oil for a decade.

NOT A WAR, MERELY A SKIRMISH

Not that the world would let this go on for a decade. That, is the key to this war. What the world sees it as a war, for the Oil producing Giants, it is merely a skirmish, where the world might be spooked enough to step in for multiple rounds of diplomatic mediation. This war will separate men from boys, so to say. With the chaff of smaller oil producers already shuttering down and medium producers being blown away. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Yemen, and other middle eastern countries will be brought to their knees and will stay there for decades to come, much to the satisfaction of Saudi Arabia, which has calculated this turmoil down to the last barrel. This will also wipe off emerging irritable oil competitors in the Far East oil producing smaller countries.

A HEATED OIL PRICE WAR DEFEATS WAR ON GLOBAL WARMING

Cheap oil burns out the fund allocation for research and development for alternate technology, and pushes such efforts to back burner. With the governments across the world struggling to stay afloat amid COVID-19 turmoil the last thing they want is to spend time and effort on non burning issues, such as diverting funds and resources to seek alternatives to Oil. This pandemic is about to change the world as we know it. Once this is done, the churning, and turmoil in the global economy would be immense. Many governments run the risk of facing a civil war like situation as supplies for essential commodities are unevenly distributed. With the health care facilities estimated to reach its breaking point, and stock market plumbing the depths leading to a global depression.

This will inevitably lead to be counter productive in world's fight against global warming. COVID-19 has shrunk global oil and energy demand, with manufacturing units either curtailing their operations or entirely closing off till this storm subsides. On top of that there will be excess of oil, which at this time, world doesn't know where to store. All reserves and storing facilities are sloshing with cheap oil to the brim.

COVID-19 is about to change the world as we know it. Governments run the risk of facing a civil war like situation as supplies for essential commodities are unevenly distributed. Health care facilities are estimated to reach its breaking point and stock markets scrapping the bottom.


CHEAP OIL-CHEAPER FOOD-PEOPLE HAPPY-NOT REALLY

When oil is costly, it increases the cost of living, food and commodities price transported across the country increases. While the reverse holds true. Affordable cost of living is expected to increase consumer confidence who would go out to spend more, thus benefitting one and all. However, a rapidly falling price of Oil, leads to speculation, where, consumers double guess themselves, hoping that this trend will lead to more price cuts, thus the consumer holds off spending. Less buying lead to inventory gathering dust across the supply chain, thus leading to lack of liquidity and lower investments for growth. This spirals down leading to widespread bankruptcies and further restriction on fund lending.

U.S.A. THE REAL TARGET BEHIND SAUDI AND RUSSIA OIL PRICE WAR

Low global demand, and static storage supply is now already used up, reports are that now, there are floating tankers topped with Oil are sailing in the high seas, with no bill of landing or specific destination. The Wall Street Journal Reported that Aramco's excess oil supply do not have buyers and ships topped up with Oil are sailing from Saudi ports but with no specific buyer or destination.

This Oil price war is wiping off competition, strengthening Russia and Saudi position as an undisputed Oil powerhouse for years to come

TRUMP TALK – FALLS ON DEAF EARS

President Trump confirmed that he had spoken to both the Saudi Prince as well as Putin. "... had a good talk…" However, gone are happy days for USA, where, a gentle nudge would make world leaders jump hoofs, especially, Russian leaders and now the Saudi princes.

It is clear that the USA now does not hold a stick long or stout enough to wield it for its own advantage. The Shale gas producers are now squeezed between two mighty unrelenting competitors who are now going in for the kill.

COVID-19 is draining the American economy in sync with the global economic downturn. On top of this, an extended Oil war is derailing any quick turnaround dreams that US and the world might entertain.



v-patrika staff

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v-patrika.com Staff